Thursday, September 13, 2007

Time to chew some Big Red...

Well, huge test for the Trojans this week as USC travels to Lincoln, Nebraska to face the #14 Cornhuskers. Nebraska is 2-0 on the young season, blowing out Nevada at home and inching by Wake Forest on the road. A lot of people are picking upset here, and even more experts are putting USC as the #3 team in the country after our lackluster performance against Idaho two weeks ago with LSU and Oklahoma looking very good so far. I can't disagree with that statement, as if the three teams were to play round robin right now, I'd say the Tigers go 2-0 and the Sooners 1-1. I'm not sure what the hell was wrong with our team against Idaho, but if we play like that against the Huskers, we'll be lucky to keep the game close. I hope Pete Carroll and the coaching staff really got into the boys this week, as the offense needs to be sharp and the defense needs to force turnovers.

On offense, QB John David Booty played a reserved game against the Vandals two weeks ago, throwing for a little over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns with an interception. Most of his passes were short, safe routes, with the big plays being created by the receiver and not by Booty's throw. He really looked a lot to Stanley Havili, many times as the first option, but maybe with the return of Patrick Turner and maybe more reps with Vidal Hazelton, he can look to stretch the field against Nebraska. Of course for the passing game to work, the running game needs to get going. The first half against Idaho was solid, but when the backups (Joe McKnight and Desmond Reed) got into the game, the offense stalled. Where's the fire to blow our opponents out of the water? It seems we race out to a 21 point lead and coast of the way. We need the petal to the metal, its not like we're going to wear out our better running backs. And Chauncey Washington returns this week as well, splitting carries with C.J. Gable and Stafon Johnson, so I look for better things from our offense. The lone bright spot was the offensive line, giving Booty all the time to throw and opening up some nice holes for the backs, especially with Kris O'Dowd holding his own as a true freshman center.

On defense, oh boy. We did force Idaho to punt the ball several times, but the Vandals still were able to move the ball against the supposed best defense in Division I. But after giving up 10 points and recovering one fumble (which wasn't forced), teams like Washington, Oregon, and Arizona State are going to carve us up on the road. It's fine to give up some yards, but when we can't turn the tide with a turnover, the defense starts to get frustrated and the offense cools down on the sideline, giving the momentum to the other team. The D-line hardly got any pressure on the Idaho QB. There is no excuse for that with All-American candidates Sedrick Ellis and Lawrence Jackson holding down the line. The linebackers did their best, but with no turnovers, their effort was average at best. The only downside was Brian Cushing going down with an injury, but with our depth, Clay Matthews was able to stand in and be the defensive MVP for the game (no game ball though, heh). The secondary did the best they could have out of a cover 2, but the Vandals were able to exploit the zone and move the ball. Right now, I wouldn't even give this unit a top 10 ranking.

As for my prediction, geez. USC wasn't very good in covering the spread last year, but they did cover against the better teams. Here's the breakdown from last year:

Covered @ Arkansas, vs. Nebraska, @ Stanford, vs. Oregon, vs. California, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Michigan
Lost @ Arizona, @ Washington State, vs. Washington, vs. Arizona State, @ Oregon State, @ UCLA

With that out of the way, I'll go USC (-10) 24, Nebraska 13, with the game down to the wire til a David Buehler 42 yard field goal puts the game out of reach late in the fourth quarter (I hope I'm wrong...)

And here's my picks for this week's other games:

Thursday, September 13th
#4 West Virginia (-17) 42, Maryland 31

Saturday, September 15th
#1 Southern California (-10) 24, #14 Nebraska 13
#2 Louisiana State (OFF) 41, Middle Tennessee State 0
#3 Oklahoma (-46) 59, Utah State 7
#5 Florida (-8) 42, #22 Tennessee 24
#6 Texas (-17.5) 35, Central Florida 13
#7 Wisconsin (OFF) 49, The Citadel 3
#8 California (-33) 56, Louisiana Tech 21
#9 Louisville (-6) 62, Kentucky 54 (Pitino edges out Tubby in a defensive battle, lol)
Washington (+3.5) 24, Ohio State 21
#11 UCLA (-15.5) 35, Utah 10
#12 Penn State (-35) 38, Buffalo 0
#13 Rutgers (OFF) 45, Norfolk State 7
#15 Georgia Tech (-7) 31, #21 Boston College 21
Alabama (+3) 12, #16 Arkansas 10
#17 South Carolina (OFF) 72, South Carolina State 14
#18 Virginia Tech (-21) 23, Ohio 6
#19 Oregon (-16.5) 35, Fresno State 31
#20 Clemson (OFF) 31, Furman 6
#22 Georgia (OFF) 35, Western Carolina 3
#24 Hawaii (-17.5) 49, Nevada-Las Vegas 38
#25 Texas A&M (OFF) 42, Louisiana-Monroe 17
Arizona (-10) 32, New Mexico 17
Arizona State (-28) 56, San Diego State 21
Stanford (-7.5) 28, San Jose State 20
Washington State (-25.5) 35, Idaho 7

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