Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sleep walking in Corvalis

So this isn't the first time that USC has lost. But this was the most shocking. A lot of people have said that the only team the Trojans would lose to is themselves. But on Thursday night, Oregon State took USC to the woodshed in a way that no team has since Pete Carroll's first year. The Beavers dominated both sides of the ball, creating huge holes for Jacquizz Rodgers to run through while forcing Mark Sanchez to throw under pressure and prevent USC from getting any momentum going with the run game. Usually USC loses because of turnovers and dumb penalties. This time, it was just being outcoached. The Trojans made no adjustments on defense to stop the Beavers' run game and could not get pressure on Oregon State QB Lyle Moevao all night. Oh well, so much for National Championship aspirations. There's no way a one loss USC team (best case scenario, mind you) goes to Miami over even a two loss SEC or Big 12 team. Those leagues are stacked right now. Anyway, here's thand e weekly Pac-10 rankings:
  1. USC (2-1, 0-1) - They are still the best team in the conference, talentwise. There's no way the Trojans should have been pushed around like they were in Corvalis. Hopefully they can get back on track against Oregon and their 11th string QB. Carroll always says the Rose Bowl is USC's goal every year, but this seemed like the year like the Trojans were going to run the table.
  2. California (3-1, 1-0) - Cal rebounded well against Colorado State and looks to be back on the right track. If they beat Arizona State next week, they should be back in the driver's seat for the conference title.
  3. Oregon (4-1, 2-0) - Yeah, they beat up Wazzu today, but USC should be fired up for the game next week in the Coliseum. Oregon should be ranked after all of the upsets today, and having their 5th string QB in there should help them as the Trojans will probably be a little more relaxed and not able to gameplan for him as much. Seriously, the Ducks do have a good chance of being the first team in a while to knock off USC in two consecutive years.
  4. Arizona (3-1, 1-0) - Drops a spot due to the bye and Oregon dominating Wazzu. But they should get win #4 next week against Washington and will be well on their way to being bowl bound.
  5. Stanford (3-2, 2-1) - Riding high into their game against Notre Dame next week. Good win over a Washington team that desperately needed to get one.
  6. Oregon State (2-2, 1-1) - Hopefully the Beavers can carry the momentum of the upset to finish strong again this year. Though huge letdown game against Utah looms on Thursday again.
  7. Arizona State (2-2, 1-0) - Two game losing streak doesn't bode well, and neither does a road trip to Berekely.
  8. UCLA (1-3, 0-1) - Fresno State made the Bruins pay for their fumble in the red zone, as after recovering the fumble, the Bulldogs never gave the ball back.UCLA continues to look scrappy, and if they are within striking distance in the fourth quarter, they are a very dangerous team. UCLA should close their three game homestand with a win over Wazzu, but the Bruins also shouldn't have beaten Tennessee or lost by 59 to BYU, so we'll see what happens.
  9. Washington (0-4, 0-2) - The Cougs may have a win, but at least the Huskies are, for the most part, competitive in all of their games. Though it is hard to find a game where Washington will be favored to win the rest of the season.
  10. Washington State (1-4, 0-2) - The Portland State game got them in the win column, but Wazzu has lost their four games by an average of 41.2 points per game, with the big ones coming in Pac-10 play. Ouch.
And the reshuffled top 25...
  1. Oklahoma (4-0)
  2. Louisiana State (4-0)
  3. Alabama (5-0)
  4. Texas (4-0)
  5. Missouri (4-0)
  6. Penn State (5-0)
  7. Brigham Young (4-0)
  8. South Florida (5-0)
  9. Texas Tech (4-0)
  10. Georgia (4-1)
  11. Florida (3-1)
  12. USC (2-1)
  13. Auburn (4-1)
  14. Ohio State (4-1)
  15. Utah (5-0)
  16. Kansas (3-1)
  17. Vanderbilt (4-0)
  18. Wisconsin (3-1)
  19. Connecticut (5-0)
  20. Boise State (3-0)
  21. Oregon (4-1)
  22. Tulsa (4-0)
  23. Ball State (5-0)
  24. Northwestern (5-0)
  25. Wake Forest (3-1)

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Pac-10 Ratings - Week 4

Another banner week for the Pac-10 (ugh). At least we weren't swept by the WAC this week (thank you Stanford....), and no one was expecting much from Arizona State after the egg they laid against UNLV. Oregon's loss was unexpected, only because the Ducks rarely lose in Autzen Stadium. Anyway, here are the rankings:
  1. USC (2-0 overall, 0-0 Pac-10) - The Trojans had a bye this week, but they need to stay focused as they enter Pac-10 play on Thursday at Oregon State. USC does not have a good history of Pac-10 road openers (2002: L @ Wazzu, 2003: L @ Cal, 2004: W @ Stanford 31-28, 2005: W @ Oregon 45 13, but trailed 13-0, 2006: W @ Wazzu 28-22, 2007: W @ Washington 27-24). USC may be the only team from the Pac-10 ranked when the polls are released tomorrow.
  2. California (2-1, 1-0) - Why the jump over Oregon? The Ducks showed that they will struggle with their top QBs being injured. Cal had a misstep at Maryland last week, but they should regroup against Colorado State this week, then host a downtrodden Sun Devil squad. THe Golden Bears look to be the second best team in the Pac-10, which isn't saying much...
  3. Arizona (3-1, 1-0) - A misstep by Arizona on Black Saturday (last Saturday...) prevents them from being #2 in the conference, though beating UCLA isn't something to write home about these days. The Wildcats are in good shape to be 5-1 heading into a key matchup against Cal on October 18th before hosting USC the following weekend. A split of these games would be huge for the program, but becoming bowl-eligible, which they should, would be a giant leap for Arizona and provide some job security for Mike Stoops.
  4. Oregon (3-1, 1-0) - Leaky defense against Boise State. Down to fourth string QB. Things aren't looking good for the Ducks right now. At least they made the game against the Broncos respectable, but they must avoid any injuries against Washington State next week if they want to have any hope against USC, unless the Trojans are looking ahead to Miami, which they shouldn't, especially after Oregon toppled USC in Eugene last year.
  5. Arizona State (2-2, 1-0) - The Sun Devils should still compete for the Pac-10 Championship. It's just that right now, they do not look like the 10 win team from a year ago. Big game at Cal in a couple of weeks to help ASU get back on track, but after losing two straight and unable to live up to the hype, the Sun Devils need to refocus, as things get harder (Cal, USC, Oregon) before they get easier.
  6. Stanford (2-2, 1-1) - Stanford really is the 6th best team in this conference... Ugh. Oregon State is probably better than the Cardinal, but the Beavers need to show something before they can be bumped up here. Sluggish win over San Jose State keeps the Farm in the six spot, but its more by default than anything that they are ranked this high. If Stanford can beat Notre Dame next week, the momentum will be huge for them the rest of the way.
  7. Oregon State (1-2, 0-1) - Only because UCLA is looking worse by the week. Though the Beavers have two tough tests in the next two weeks against USC and Utah, both Thursday games.
  8. UCLA (1-2, 0-1) - That Tennessee game is becoming a distant memory. And also a bookmark for the last time UCLA scored an offensive touchdown. Ouch. Good news is that you can get tickets to the next Bruin game for only $10. Odds are the next game will be against their fourth straight ranked OOC opponent (BYU in Las Vegas Bowl, Tennessee, BYU, Fresno State). After a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin, and a brawl against Toledo tonight, the Bulldogs will probably look to work some kinks out against the poor Bruins. 4-8 looks like the best case scenario for Rick Neuheisel right about now.
  9. Washington State (1-3, 0-1) - Took care of business against Portland State. Now look for their second win to come somewhere between Hawaii and the end of next year.
  10. Washington (0-3, 0-1) - The Dawgs need a win over Stanford, cause wins are going to be hard to come by for Washington the rest of the way.
And for the top 25...
  1. USC (2-0)
  2. Oklahoma (3-0)
  3. Florida (3-0)
  4. Georgia (4-0)
  5. Louisiana State (3-0)
  6. Missouri (4-0)
  7. Texas (3-0)
  8. Alabama (4-0)
  9. Wisconsin (3-0)
  10. Brigham Young (4-0)
  11. South Florida (4-0)
  12. Texas Tech (4-0)
  13. Penn State (4-0)
  14. Auburn (3-1)
  15. Ohio State (3-1)
  16. Wake Forest (3-0)
  17. Utah (4-0)
  18. Kansas (3-1)
  19. Vanderbilt (4-0)
  20. Texas Christian (4-0)
  21. Clemson (3-1)
  22. Boise State (3-0)
  23. Connecticut (4-0)
  24. Tulsa (3-0)
  25. Oregon (3-1)
3 SEC teams in the Top 5? Whoa...

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Pac-10 Ratings/Rumblings

Whoa, the Pac-10 can thank USC (and Oregon to some extent) for defending the pride of the conference. After a decent start in out of conference play, the Pac-10 got blistered by the Mountain West conference. Ugh. Here's the rundown of the conference ratings (not standings since 3 teams still haven't played their first conference game yet:
  1. USC (2-0 overall, 0-0 Pac-10) - Obviously. Ohio State may not be an elite team when playing outside of the Big Ten, but they are still a big time opponent. And the Trojans' 35-3 drubbing of a team that played in the last two BCS championship games and returned over 20 starters from last year's team is quite a statement. You can say the Buckeyes play in a "weak" conference but remember, USC's losses in the past two years have been to teams that were double digit underdogs. Saturday's win, coupled with a blowout on the road of Virginia keeps the Trojans at the top. The Trojans play Oregon State in a Thursday game, and USC always seems to have trouble in Pac-10 road openers, so they must remain focused, even against a down Oregon State squad.
  2. Oregon (3-0, 1-0) - The only other undefeated team after the dust settled in Week 3, though it took two overtimes for the Ducks to hold off a mid-level Big Ten team. And now, Oregon is on their third starting quarterback heading into a home game against the tricky Broncos of Boise State. After facing their only test of the season so far, it's safe to say to jury's still out on the Ducks, even after blowout wins over Washington and Utah State. If they get past the Broncos, the Ducks will likely be 5-0 heading into their game at USC.
  3. California (2-1, 1-0) - Here's where it gets tough in the rankings. The Golden Bears started off the season with a solid win over Michigan State and a 66-3 drubbing of Washington State. RB Jahvid Best was creating Heisman hype. Then Maryland happened. The Terps were in the opposite direction of Cal, with a 7 point win over FCS Delaware and a loss to Middle Tennessee State from the Sun Belt. But the Terps jumped on the Bears, and Cal tried valiantly to make a comeback, but fell short. It goes to show that it's always tough to win on the road, especially on the East Coast, and Maryland is technically a BCS team, so I expect the Golden Bears to rebound against Colorado State in a couple of weeks before hosting Arizona State in a game which looked promising before Saturday.
  4. Arizona (2-1, 0-0) - Well it was between the Wildcats and Sun Devils. Arizona State is the better team, but had a much worse loss, even though losing to New Mexico isn't something to be proud of either. One of four teams to lose to a MWC foe this week, Arizona clearly could not break the glass ceiling of being a bowl-worthy team. The Wildcats smacked Idaho 70-0 in week one, then beat Toledo 41-16, and was looking to avenge last season's loss to the Lobos to become 3-0 heading into conference play. But no dice. Arizona couldn't live up to the expectations of being the chic pick to win the Pac-10, as a win against New Mexico likely would have put them at #2 in the standings this week. They open Pac-10 play against UCLA next week and could still be 5-1 entering their game against California.
  5. Arizona State (2-1, 1-0) - Ugh, they looked flat the entire game. A lot of times when a ranked opponent plays sluggish against an inferior opponent, you always expect the ranked team to pull it out. But UNLV made the big plays late against Arizona State, and took a lot of luster from the Sun Devils' game against Georgia next week. But Arizona State has no one to blame but themselves. The Devils did not look sharp against Northern Arizona in week 1, and took a while to put a scrappy Stanford squad away. But this week, they allowed the Rebels to stay close late in the game, keeping the door open for the upset, and that's exactly what happened. After this tough loss, hard to see the Sun Devils' defending Pac-10 pride against Georgia next week. Things get slightly easier at Cal two weeks after that, then a visit to the Coliseum. Watch out for a 2-4 start for the Devils...
  6. Stanford (1-2, 1-1) - At least they haven't lost by 59 points this season.... yet. Though they had no business beating Oregon State in week 1, and they were expected to lose to Arizona State and TCU. A win next week over San Jose State (please Stanford...), and if they can beat the Huskies, the Cardinal should be in good shape for their game against Notre Dame, who still isn't impressing me.
  7. UCLA (1-1, 0-0) - That win over Tennessee got wiped out and forgotten about after a 59-0 blowout to BYU. Not saying that the Cougars are a bad team, just saying that UCLA played the worst game possible... and I didn't even watch the game! (Versus...) No one was expecting UCLA to win this game, but no one expected Neuheisel, Walker, and Chow to produce the worst loss in almost 80 years for UCLA either. The best thing the Bruins can do is forget about this game and move on, as they host an Arizona team looking to rebound from a tough loss as well, then they host the scrappy Fresno State Bulldogs, who are always looking for a fight...
  8. Oregon State (1-2, 0-1) - The Beavers should have taken care of business against Stanford to open the season. Now they're staring down a 1-5 start to the season, which would make their trademark strong finishes to the season null and void. Back to back Thursday games against ranked teams (USC and Utah) do not bode well, but at least they handled Hawaii to avoid a potential 0-6 start heading into a game against the Washington schools. Hopefully they can catch the Trojans and Utes looking ahead. That's the only chance they have.
  9. Washington (0-3, 0-1) - Well both Washington schools are 0-3. But at least the Huskies have something to complain about. Or excuses. Oregon is right now the second best team in the conference. The referees prevented Washington from at least a shot in overtime against BYU. Oklahoma is that good. Wazzu lost to Oklahoma State (< Oklahoma), California (< Oregon), and Baylor (<< BYU). The Huskies might have a chance against Stanford in two weeks, and they avoid the big boys in the Pac-1o til the tail end of the season, so UW might have a chance to string together some wins before Notre Dame, USC, Arizona State, and UCLA in a four game stretch.
  10. Washington State (0-3, 0-1) - This was easy. At least the Huskies were close against BYU. But the Cougs have been outmatched and outclassed in all of their games this season. Losing by 63 points doesn't help either. If Washington State does not beat Portland State next week, they may not win a game til the Apple Cup or the season finale at Hawaii.
Ugh... My Top 25 after Week 3 (I told myself I was going to wait after Week 4, but oh well...):
  1. USC (2-0)
  2. Oklahoma (3-0)
  3. Missouri (3-0)
  4. Georgia (3-0)
  5. Florida (2-0)
  6. Texas (2-0)
  7. Wisconsin (3-0)
  8. Louisiana State (2-0)
  9. Alabama (3-0)
  10. South Florida (3-0)
  11. Auburn (3-0)
  12. Texas Tech (3-0)
  13. Brigham Young (3-0)
  14. East Carolina (3-0)
  15. Ohio State (2-1)
  16. Penn State (3-0)
  17. Oregon (3-0)
  18. Utah (3-0)
  19. Wake Forest (2-0)
  20. Kansas (2-1)
  21. Vanderbilt (3-0)
  22. Texas Christian (3-0)
  23. Clemson (2-1)
  24. West Virginia (1-1)
  25. Fresno State (1-1)