Trojans come up Poinsettias... huh?

Kick USC when they're down, Pac-10 teams, because when the Trojans bounce back (maybe not next season, but the season after), they will come back with a vengeance. Wait, who am I kidding? The talent gap has closed on USC to the point where they can't just win games on talent anymore. The Trojans can't just show up to a game and sleepwalk to a 30 point win. Coaches are finding the chinks in the armor and USC can't make the adjustments to make use of their advantages. Games are being decided on which team has the most heart, and in most of the games this season, the team on the opposite on the end of the field has had more desire to win the game. Maybe not due to a lack of desire to win the game as much as overconfidence on the Trojans' part. Take a look back at this season, game-by-game, and let's figure out which team wanted the game more.

• USC 56, San Jose State 3 - The Spartans dominated the first quarter before USC remembered they were USC and overwhelmed San Jose State.
• USC 18, Ohio State 15 - Sluggish game where both teams wanted the win equally. But at this point in the season, Ohio State was still Ohio State, who faltered in big games while USC still dominated Big Ten teams.
• Washington 16, USC 13 - The Trojans were so overconfident (like the year before against Oregon State) that they thought they could sleepwalk into Husky Stadium for a win. Jake Locker willed the Huskies to the win while the armor started to crack for the defense.
• USC 27, Washington State 6 - The score may not show it, but if you watched this game, the Cougars moved the ball on the vaunted Trojan defense. QB Jeff Tuel, in his first action of the season, gave the defense fits all game.
• USC 30, California 3 - The last complete game of the season. Cal had just come off a demoralizing loss to Oregon (42-3) as the 6th ranked team in the nation. The Trojans wanted this one more. Last time all season I felt confident of a game going into halftime.
• USC 34, Notre Dame 27 - USC started off fast, but Notre Dame wanted to win this one, badly. A furious comeback was cut short as time expired on the Irish. This was kind of like the Penn State Rose Bowl game where USC jumped out to a big lead only to hold on late to save the win.
• USC 42, Oregon State 36 - Oregon State wanted this one more, and they had the weapons to do it. Somehow Matt Barkley put together his first coherent drive since the Ohio State game to work the last five minutes off the clock to hold on.
• Oregon 47, USC 20 - Look at the score and tell me who had more heart. I believe it was 24-17 at the half. 
• USC 14, Arizona State 9 - Fluke pick-6 and 75 yard screen play or USC is 7-5 right now.
• Stanford 55, USC 21 - 27 fourth quarter points by Stanford. I think they may have had more heart that game.
• USC 28, UCLA 7 - A competent Bruin offense probably moves the ball on USC, turning enough punts into field goals to give UCLA the win. But both teams were equally bad in this one.
• Arizona 21, USC 17 - Arizona wanted to go to the Holiday Bowl. USC just wanted a nightmare season to end.

That's just one time all season where USC showed more effort and heart through out the game than their opponent. In years past, I would complain about how turnovers and penalties would shoot the Trojans in their foot. but those teams at least had the heart to not get blown out by 34 points at home. I mean at certain points in the game, you can look at the body language of the team and tell that we're not going to win the game. Against Oregon when we could not stop their offense. Against Stanford when Toby Gerhart ripped off another huge gain. Against Washington as Jake Locker dissected the defense. Against Arizona as Will Harris jogged over to help on the game winning touchdown. At least in the past, you could say USC would always have a chance to win the game, even though their mistakes put them in a losing predicament.

Hard to find a favorite loss, but I look back to the Oregon State loss in 2006. USC fell behind 33-10 early in the third quarter and it was almost time to turn off the TV. But that team would not allow USC to get blown out. They would not allow the Trojans name to be sullied by a blowout to Oregon State. So the made a HUGE run at the game, cutting the margin to 33-17, then 33-25, then 33-31 before Booty's pass to Jarrett on the conversion was tipped at the line. At the time, the loss hurt, it was the first regular season loss since 2002. But I came away with a lot of positives from that game. How the team showed heart and almost pulled off the comeback of the ages. How that team would not allow the program to suffer such a blowout. The UCLA loss in 2006 was disheartening because of how poorly the offense played that day. The Stanford loss in 2007 hurt because the Cardinal were such huge underdogs and made a comeback of their own, down 9 points in the fourth quarter. The Oregon loss in 2007 was fine, as Mark Sanchez was filling in for an  injured Booty, and we were driving to tie in the final minutes. The Oregon State loss in 2008 was brutal only because we looked so good against Virginia and Ohio State only to stumble in Corvalis, and the Trojans could not close the 21 point halftime margin.

But the most disappointing thing of this year's team is their inability to finish games. Pop in the 2004 USC Trojans DVD. What is the one thing Carroll is shouting to his team in the locker room after game?

Carroll: "Can you win the game in the first quarter?"
Team: "Hell no!"
Carroll: "Can you win the game in the second quarter?"
Team: "Hell no!"
Carroll: "Can you win the game in the third quarter?"
Team: "Hell no!"
Carroll: "But can you win the game in the fourth quarter?"
Team: "Hell yeah!" (Insanity ensues.)

That was one thing you could always count on from a Pete Carroll coached team, that they would always finish games strong. For some reason, this year's team has played their worst in the fourth quarter. Last season, USC outscored their opponents 98-15 in 12 regular season games (a TD against Oregon State on a 2-yard drive, and a TD against Stanford to end the game). This year? They were outscored 70-88 (skewed a bit by a 27-0 shellacking by the Cardinal, but still). That's not finishing strong Pete. Is it the conditioning? Don't we still have the same guy we've had since 2002 (if not further back)? Is it the injuries wrecking havoc to the depth chart? Is it the coaches being out-coached? What changed at the end of the third quarter against Notre Dame? It's hard to put a finger on it.

But its nice for all the Bruins out there to put this 8-4 season in perspective, how they would be elated if they were 8-4 this year and going to a bowl game not in Middle-of-nowhere, Idaho or Cold-as-fuck, Michigan. And it was a great run from 2002 to 2008, winning seven straight Pac-10 championships and finishing in the top 4 every year while going to a BCS game. With the parity in the Pac-10 and balance of talent across the board, it would be hard for any team to break USC's record 3 straight Rose Bowl wins (and 4 appearances in a row), so we have that to look forward to. But when will the Trojans elevate back up the Pac-10 pecking order? It doesn't look like next year, with the Stanfords and Oregons and Oregon States looking to run shit in the conference while USC is finally, officially in rebuilding mode. Carroll may think Matt Barkley is the golden boy, but until he can learn to set his field, stop staring down receivers, and avoiding his requisite interception every game, he is not the next Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, or even John David Booty.

What will help him and the team out? No coaching turnover. I think that, more than anything, wrecked havoc on the team this year. Even if the coaches failed to improve any player this year (Barkley made more mistakes at the end of the season, offensive line unit was ranked #1 nationally and disintegrated as the year progressed, ditto for the secondary, receivers did not improve through the year and were mishandled (short routes to Damian Williams, burning DeVon Flournoy's redshirt, tight ends not named Anthony McCoy having no confidence), special teams (outside of the punt return unit) not improving even with a special teams coach) having the continuity of the staff will help the young players grow (then again, the lack of improvement could again be placed on the arrogance of the players, thinking that they're better than the other team). Half of last year's staff is in Washington right now, and it looks like the better half is running things in Seattle. But the staff, as is, is fine, as long as it can stay intact through the spring and into next season.

The one thing I like about next season's schedule is that there isn't one game everyone is circling, like Ohio State or Nebraska from the past few years. There will be no big game let down for next year's team, allowing them to take one game at a time and not look past the opponent of the week. @ Hawaii, Virginia, @ Minnesota, and Notre Dame is a very manageable out-of-conference, but then again, we all know Carroll's problems lie in conference. Having Oregon and Cal come to the Coliseum, helps, then again, we lost by 34 at home to Stanford this year.

Will things change this offseason? Hard to see the administration putting heat on Carroll after his great run from 2002-2008, especially with that gaudy 18-2 record against rivals UCLA and Notre Dame. Every great team of this decade has had their poor seasons. Oklahoma started the aughts (2000's) by winning the National Championship and made it to three more games (2003 loss to LSU 21-14, 2004 loss to USC 55-19, 2008 loss to Florida 24-14) but went 8-4 in 2005 (those wins were eventually vacated thanks to Rhett Bomar) and 7-5 in 2009 (minus Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford). Miami looked to run shit after winning it all in 2001 but falling short in 2002 (double-overtime epic loss to Ohio State 31-24) but went 7-5, 5-7, and 7-6 between 2006 and 2008. Ohio State won the 2002 national championship but lost in 2006 and 2007 and finished 7-5 and 8-4 twice. USC started off slow (5-7, 6-6 in 2000 and 2001, respectively) but dominated the rest of the decade before this year, which could still end in a not bad 9-4. LSU won it all in 2003 and 2007 but was 8-5 in 2000 and 2008 and was is the only national champion with 2 losses. Texas, I think has won double digit games every year in this decade. If they win the title this year, they may be the team of the decade, since Florida had to endure the Ron Zook era. Wow too much info there... might have a team of the decade power rankings after the national championship.

Anyway, the Pac-10 rankings heading into the bowl season:

1. Oregon (10-2, 8-1) - Pac-10 Coach of the Year will be Chip Kelly, not only for winning the Pac-10 championship in his first season as coach, but also for turning what could have been a disastrous season after the Blount sucker punch and embarrassing display against Boise State in the season opener. What a difference three months make, as they looked to be the laughing stock of the conference. Just two things Oregon: Don't shit the bed in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State like you did against Boise State, and stop rushing the field every time you win a game that means something. Act like you've won before.
2. Arizona (8-4, 6-3) - Arizona finally got paid off for waiting for the Mike Stoops era to payoff, and it should culminate in the Holiday Bowl against a Nebraska team that can't score if their lives depended on it. Four field goals didn't beat Texas, and it probably won't be the Wildcats. By the way, Trojan fans, QB Nick Foles was playing with a broken left (non-throwing) hand while they were down to their back-up tail back and still won on the road. I'm just sayin'.
3. Oregon State (8-4, 6-3) - Rose Bowl or bust indeed. Holiday Bowl already passed on the Beavs, the Sun Bowl has a no-repeat clause (Oregon State beat Pitt last year in a barn-burner, 3-0), so its down to the Vegas or Emerald Bowls. Probably the Vegas since the Emerald wants its pick of the NorCal teams (Stanford, Cal). The Beavs probably will get Utah in Vegas since BYU has played there in the past 32 seasons.
   
4. Stanford (8-4, 6-3) - USC's loss is the Cardinal gain, right? El Paso against Texas Tech or Oklahoma looks likely for Stanford. Too bad Toby Gerhart had to play on a four loss team, as he should win the Heisman on production alone, but Mark Ingram being productive on a 13-0 Bama team will win the Tide their first Heisman (hard to believe, I know). Gerhart should be the Pac-10 offensive player of the year, though.
   
5. California (8-4, 5-4) - USC won the head-to-head here, but Cal, despite a disappointing loss to Washington, finished the season stronger, and would probably be 10-2 had Jahvid Best not been knocked out of the Oregon State game. That back-to-back with Oregon and USC lingers though. Probably head to the Emerald Bowl again, unless the Sun Bowl gets frisky and sends the Bears to El Paso and keeps Stanford in the Bay Area. Either way, Boston College awaits as long as the Gator Bowl can host the Bobby Bowden Memorial Bowl between Florida State and West Virginia (the last two teams he's coached).
   
6. USC (8-4, 5-4) - What's prettier, a Rose or Poinsettia? Well at least some Trojan fans got what they asked for, a bowl game not in Pasadena. Still stuck in Southern California, though I guess that was the goal coming in, playing in one of the Rose Bowl games this year. Disappointment, sure. The question is, will Mitch Mustain get some reps in the Poinsettia Bowl against BYU? Because this defense is not holding the Cougars to less than 28 points, which is bad since the offense can't eclipse 21.
7. Washington (5-7, 4-5) - Finished the season strong by winning the Apple Cup and destroying Cal. That hail mary by ASU literally cost the Huskies a chance to play in a bowl this year. I bark for Sark, and I think he is a close runner-up to Chip Kelly for coach of the year. A five win turnaround is not bad at all.
8. UCLA (6-6, 3-6) - Yes, bowl eligible, but hard to overlook that six game losing streak. Notre Dame's loss is the Bruins' gain, as they should (as long as Navy beats Army) get called by a bowl with an at-large spot, most likely the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, unless Roady's wants Louisiana-Monroe or Louisiana-Lafayette to fill that spot. Idaho is a virtual lock in the other spot of the bowl, so instead of toothless Wyoming people taunting the Bruins, we'll have toothless Idaho people throwing potatoes at them. Good times all around.
9. Arizona State (4-8, 2-7) - Man that 10 win season feels like years ago, even though it was in 2007. Seems like Dennis Erickson has some of the pieces in place, they just need time to gel. At least they won't finish last in the conference for some time...
   
10. Washington State (1-11, 0-9) - At least they didn't finish winless, and they beat a team going to a bowl game! Looks like the only gimme on the slate for any team next year.

And the overall rankings (though I've failed to follow college football after USC lost to Stanford):

1. Alabama (13-0) - Had osme hiccups along the way, but they were able to pull out the close games and take care of teams they were supposed to. Up next is the BCS National Championship likely against Texas.
2. Texas (13-0) - Man that would have been awesome had Nebraska pulled off the upset. Oh well. Hard to pick against Bama winning it all though.
3. Cincinnati (12-0) - 3-5 don't really matter anymore. I just put Cincy up here since they've gone through a tough Big East slate (no joke) and beat Oregon State in Corvalis. Probably Sugar Bowl against Florida? Man the Cincy offense against Florida's D is a sick matchup.
   
4. Texas Christian (12-0) - Weak schedule (though you can't fault them, as they traveled to Virginia and Clemson), though hard to ignore their body of work against the Mountain West. Another dream match between TCU and Boise in a BCS game? Poinsettia had the game last year and it finished 17-16, TCU. Though the Fiesta Bowl was rumored to favor a TCU/Big Ten matchup with Iowa or Penn State.
   
5. Florida (12-1) - Hard to ignore being blown out by Alabama and only had one true test during the season (at LSU). Sugar Bowl against Cincinnati would be a fun one to watch.
   
6. Boise State (13-0) - Has the most impressive win of Cincy, TCU< and themselves in their win over Oregon, but hasn't done much to impress since. Probably get dragged out to the Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech.
   
7. Oregon (10-2) - Rose Bowl bound against Ohio State. Terrell Pryor needs to be on target if the Buckeye offense wants to keep up with the Ducks.
8. Ohio State (10-2) - Rose Bowl bound against Oregon. Weird with the Buckeyes' dominance of the Big Ten throughout the decade that this is their first trip to the Rose Bowl in ages.
9. Georgia Tech (10-2) - Bounced back from being upset by Georgia by winning the ACC. Orange Bowl against Boise State is probable.
10. Iowa (10-2) - Will still get rewarded for a good season with a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.