Dennis Dixon and the Ducks are good

The Trojans reign in the Pac-10 appears to be over. Even though Cal and USC shared the Pac-10 championship with 2 losses last year, Arizona State looks great, and the winner of next week's game between the Sun Devils and Ducks looks to be for a berth in the Rose Bowl, if not to have the better track to the National Championship. As for USC, they appear to be on track for another loss on Thanksgiving and finish 9-3 at best, and that's with us winning on the road against Cal and the Jekyll/Hyde known as UCLA (ugh, wtf, losing to Wazzu...). Anyway, assuming Arizona State and Hawaii win the late games, here's my top 25...

1. Ohio State (9-0)
2. Oregon (7-1)
3. Boston College (8-0)
4. Arizona State (8-0)
   
5. Louisiana State (7-1)
6. Oklahoma (7-1)
7. West Virginia (7-1)
8. Missouri (7-1)
9. Kansas (8-0)
10. Georgia (6-2)
11. Michigan (7-2)
12. Virginia Tech (6-2)
13. Hawaii (8-0)
14. Boise State (7-1)
15. Connecticut (7-1)
16. Southern California (6-2)
17. Texas (6-2)
18. Alabama (6-2)
    
19. Auburn (6-3)
    
20. Florida (5-3)
21. Wake Forest (6-2)
22. South Florida (6-2)
    
23. Troy (6-2)
24. Wisconsin (7-2)
25. Kentucky (6-3)
    

Irish no match for Trojans

Wow, I guess Notre Dame is really that bad. The Trojans haven't mishandled a team like this all season. I know the Irish offense was bad, but damn, their defense looked slow when we got our position players into open space, especially with Joe McKnight on his first career touchdown run. But a really great game by the Trojans on all fronts, gaining 462 to 165 yards on offense, winning the turnover battle (3-1) and of course, pitching the shutout. Other thoughts from the weekend:

• Big Balls Les at it again. What a call on third down with time running out, a timeout in his pocket, and in field goal range while trailing by one at home to go to the air for the touchdown. And like in the Florida game, his gamble paid off with a huge play to down Auburn 30-24. A second loss would have been devastating to the Tigers; now with a season of upsets, they are still alive.
• Cal dropped another Pac-10 game, with UCLA returning a pick-6 to seal the game and win 30-21. Now, Cal looks like the fourth best team in the Pac-10 behind Oregon, Arizona State, and USC/UCLA.
• I called the Rutgers win over South Florida, but was pretty shocked by South Carolina's loss to Vandy.

And here's USC still haunting Brady Quinn...


And my top 25...

1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Louisiana State (6-1)
3. Oregon (6-1)
4. Oklahoma (6-1)
5. Boston College (7-0)
6. Arizona State (7-0)
7. West Virginia (6-1)
8. Virginia Tech (6-1)
9. Missouri (6-1)
10. South Florida (6-1)
11. Florida (5-2)
12. Southern California (6-1)
13. Kansas (7-0)
14. Kentucky (6-2)
15. Hawaii (7-0)
16. Michigan (6-2)
17. Alabama (6-2)
18. California (6-2)
    
19. Boise State (6-1)
20. Georgia (5-2)
21. Virginia (7-1)
    
22. Texas (6-2)
    
23. South Carolina (6-2)
24. Penn State (6-2)
    
25. Connecticut (6-1)

Another crazy weekend in college football

The top 2 teams in the nation lose as the favorites fall from the top of the rankings. I know I've had a while since the end of the game to post my feelings on the Trojans 20-13 win over Arizona, which had its moments, but I'll wait til tomorrow so I can sleep on my feelings. Here's my uninfluenced rankings for week 8 (damn!):

1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. Louisiana State (6-1)
3. South Florida (6-0)
   
4. Oklahoma (6-1)
5. Oregon (5-1)
6. Kentucky (6-1)
   
7. Boston College (7-0)
8. South Carolina (6-1)
9. West Virginia (5-1)
   
10. California (5-1)
11. Arizona State (7-0)
12. Virginia Tech (6-1)
13. Florida (4-2)
14. Missouri (6-1)
15. Southern California (5-1)
16. Kansas (6-0)
17. Hawaii (7-0)
18. Auburn (5-2)
19. Texas Tech (6-1)
20. Michigan (5-2)
21. Cincinnati (6-1)
    
22. Georgia (5-2)
23. Alabama (5-2)
24. Virginia (6-1)
25. Boise State (4-1)

Here's the highlights...

We Believe...

Thanks: sec13forSC (Wearesc.com boards)

Now, I have the right to pull this if we lose to Arizona... Hopefully Sanchez will get a shot to show what he's got. We can't be babying him anymore, he's been in the program for almost 3 years. And the boys better come out fired up, proving that they are worth the hype and the preseason #1 ranking everyone gave them. But we (and I) believe that the Trojans still have a shot to make this season special. With all of the upsets occurring so far, anythings is possible. But it all starts with beating Arizona. Don't worry about Notre Dame. Or Oregon. Or Oregon State. Or Cal. Or Arizona State. Or UCLA. It's all about taking care of them Wildcats, cause if you think we were embarrassed last week, wait and see if we drop this game as well.

Wheres...

Stanford 24, #2 Southern California 23

Wheres... what's missing from this team? What happened where a team riding a home field advantage that led to a 35 game home win streak blew a 9 point lead? I'm still trying to piece things together, as I'm wondering where things went wrong.

First off, you cannot blame any of this on injuries. Or if you do, you cannot say we've been having the top 5 recruiting classes in the past 5 years or that Pete Carroll preaches competition, because the people that have replaced the injured have not held their own. Start with the offensive line, going back to the Washington game, where C Kris O'Dowd and G Chilo Rachal went down on the same play. On the next offensive series, O'Dowd's replacement, C Matt Spanos, who came into the season as the starter, and QB John David Booty had a bad snap exchange which led to a turnover. Now go to the Stanford game. The unit gave up 4 sacks as well a blocked PAT which was the difference in the game. They couldn't hold the Cardinal defense to let RB Chauncey Washington score from the one yard line before the end of the first half. The line let the Trojans rush for only 95 yards, not even for half of our season average. But I guess it is hard to stay motivated to give Booty enough time to throw when all he does is miss receivers or throw interceptions.

More on injuries? What about the running backs? We started off with 10 of them. Emmaunel Moody went to Florida. Fine. Marc Tyler and Broderick Green are redshirting. Good. C.J. Gable had season ending surgery on his groin on Saturday. Whatever. Stafon Johnson hurt his foot. Geez. So that leaves us with Chauncey Washington, Hershel Dennis (!), Joe McKnight, Allen Bradford, and Desmond Reed. Washington had 23 carries against Stanford. Where was McKnight or Bradford? Why was Dennis getting cruch time carries? Bradford is a much better back than Dennis right now, and with his physical running, he had a better chance to score before the half. And we couldn't use McKnight as a change of pace back? When Chauncey is running for 3 or fewer yards on every down, we need something to keep the defense off balance. We did on one play with Ronald Johnson on a sweep. But come on. With five healthy and capable backs, why does one get more than 90% of the touches? Especially on a night where Chauncey was not able to break one. It just show's Pete's stubbornness. Here was a situation where a guy like Bradford or McKnight could have really shown their worth. If you're going to blow their redshirt to give them a chance to play, why aren't you doing so? Another back, FB Stanley Havili was again nonexistent in the offense, other than as the intended receiver on Booty's pick 6.

Further into injuries? What happened to the depth of our defense? That our third string linebackers could start at any other FBS school? And our corners may not be the best in the country, but the way they are taught to play, go for the big hits or face guard the receiver, we are never going to get any interceptions or stop a more accurate passer, like Dixon or Longshore. The coverage on the final touchdown was horrible. Did Mozique McCurtis even know where the ball was? And honestly, it seemed like we were more worried about Stanford QB Tavita Prichard running more than anything. But on 4th and 20, giving that up was inexplicable. Why are we blitzing there? First, our blitzes haven't worked since the 2004 Rose Bowl where John Navarre was a sitting duck the entire game. Now, teams have learned to have a blocking back to slow down the corners or outside linebackers just enough to burn us for blitzing. What did all of the blitzing cause? One sack. The other three were by Sedrick Ellis, and that was just by pure talent. I mean come on. What happened to the best defense in college football (supposedly)? They gave up 17 points. In the fourth quarter. To Stanford. Give me a break. Our defense may have talent, but they do not have a nose for the ball. 106th in turnover margin? Geez. We're not going anywhere if we can't get a QB starting his first game ever to only throw one pick. We should be at 2 losses right now, as if Jake Locker could have hit on a couple of more passes, the Huskies could have won last week. Did our defensive mentality leave with Coach O, like our offense did with Norm Chow? Even in the games we have won, it wasn't because of forcing turnovers, it was because the other team was intimidated by us.

Back to the offensive side, when is Patrick Turner going to step up? I think the entire Trojan fan base is still waiting to live up to his potential. A possession receiver cannot drop 3 passes like he did. It seems like he is always in cruise control, never giving his all. If I'm wrong about that, prove it PT. Earn that #1 jersey that you are wearing. Cause right now, you are putting that number to shame. And did we really depend so much on Dwyane Jarrett and Steve Smith last year to the point that Vidal Hazelton, David Ausberry, and co. could not develop? If we are not going to give them playing time, why are we burning up their redshirts? Same with Stafon Johnson. Unless you're playing like Kris O'Dowd, who is my offensive MVP of the season so far, and with other guys already as established stars and backups, please leave them on the bench. If a guy like Stafon only gets 3 touches, that is not worth blowing a year of eligibility over. But the receivers, Hazelton and Ausberry didn't make an impression last year, but they still went through their redshirt years. Now? Where's the impact? Where's the effects of their playing time? Not one receiver is stepping up. It's time to see more of Ronald Johnson out there. He stretched the field on his touchdown, but why aren't we seeing more of that? When we take shots down field, it seems to be with slower guys, like Fred Davis (no offense), Turner, and Havili, when we just need someone to run down the field and beat teams that are stacking the line against us. Why wasn't RoJo in on the final drive? All we needed was 30 yards. It seems like Sark has gone really conservative with us. I guess it wasn't Kiffen that was making all fo the bad calls last year. I can't believe this.

Booty, what the hell man. I understand wanting to play through an injury, but if that injury is clearly affecting your play, which was evident to me, you need to man up and let someone more capable to play, like Mark Sanchez. I'm not saying that Sanchez is going to lead us to New Orleans, but if Carroll had so much confidence going into the game that we'd walk right over Stanford, why not give your backup QB a chance? Of any game this season, why not this one? Just more of Carroll being a stubborn mule here. But not all of it was on Booty. Where are the bootlegs? Is Booty hurting somewhere else? If the O-line cannot hold the pocket, get Booty out on the move to give him more time and more options. Get Havili more touches. If Turner is going to drop balls, look more to RoJo or BFD. But Booty does need to make better decisions, like on his pick 6. Then again, our timing routes don't work with undependable receivers. Come on.

But it comes back around to our savior, Pete Carroll. A lot was missing from this game. The first half was fine, we only had 9 points, but Stanford couldn't get a first down if their life depended on it. But after that, all hell broke loose. An uninspired three and out followed by Booty's pick 6, followed by another interception before BFD took it upon himself to score his TD. The entire second half, I felt nervous every time we had the ball, and I put that on the shoulders of Booty and Sark. But even with the offense struggling, you'd hope that the defense would hold their own. And they did. For three quarters. Then Stanford got a drink of magic water and score three times on the vaunted Trojans defense for the win. But something was missing for me. And that was heart. We really lacked it on Saturday. There was no desire to win. We didn't want to take the game away from Stanford, we just waited for them to finally fold. And you cannot blame the crowd for that, it was the loudest I have ever heard the Coliseum since the Cal game four years ago. The Trojans just seemed to give up. They were faced with adversity and folded, unlike LSU, who converted 5 (!) fourth downs in their win over Florida, where they were down 10 entering the fourth quarter. It was like USC felt the game was over at halftime. But where was Pete, with his gotta win the turnover battle (lost 5-1)? Win the fourth quarter (lost 17-7)? Maybe Harbaugh was right, Pete probably has one foot out the door and the other in San Diego, cause I did not see any fire in him last night.

This was by far the most disappointing loss, no question. I've only endured four other losses in my time at USC. I'll rank them from least to most disappointng:

1. Oregon State 33, USC 31. Here, it turned out that it was a wake up call for the team. They were down 33-10 and could have folded like a cheap tent, but the team rallied behind Booty (!) to close to the final margin. Even though this game was filled with mistakes and poor play, they showed a lot of heart to come back and put themselves in a position to win the game. And it was on the road.
2. California 34, USC 31, 3 O/T. I wasn't as disappointed only because it was our fourth game ever with a new quarterback and I wasn't as die hard a Trojan fan yet. USC fell behind 21-7 to tie the game 24-24 heading into overtime. Three more periods and two missed field goals later, the Trojans were upset. But here, with an inexperienced team, QB Matt Leinart was making only his 4th start, the running backs were led by Hershel Dennis (!), they still stuck it out in a hostile environment before K Ryan Killeen's field goal was blocked in the third overtime. And it was on the road.
3. 2006 BCS Championship Texas 41, USC 38. Even though it was heartbreaking to see Vince Young trot his way into the endzone with seconds remaining, neither team played horribly. USC was up by 12 in the fourth, but Young did his best Superman impression to lead the Longhorns back. And even though we were favored to win the game (when haven't we been favored?), Texas was a great team, and they beat us playing at their best when we were playing great. They deserved to win that game. We didn't give up that one was much as they wanted to win it. And it was on the road (not at the Coliseum).
4. UCLA 13, USC 9. This one hurt. Win one from the crosstown rivals and we're headed to Tempe. But it was not to be. The Trojans rushed for less than 3 yards per carry as the offense never got any momentum as the Bruins held USC scoreless in the second half. The only reason why this isn't lower is because of the Stanford game. And it was on the road.
5. Stanford 24, USC 23. Because of everything said above. And it was at home...

Ugh, if we lose to Arizona on Saturday, I'm out. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Not because the Wildcats are a bad team, its if we lose at home for the second straight game, all bets are off. We are still in control of our destiny, if we win out, we can do no worse than the Rose Bowl (and probably playing Michigan again). But another loss, and hello Sun Bowl! Hello Las Vegas Bowl! Don't screw the fans Pete. Get the boys fired up and make them play like there is no tomorrow, because there is none. Lose and we'd be bigger disappointments than Michigan. Seriously.

Long live the Trees

Ugh, I'll update with my feelings on the game later, but here's my top 25 (not influenced by the actual ballots...):

1. Louisiana State (6-0)
2. Ohio State (6-0)
3. California (5-0)
4. South Florida (5-0)
5. Boston College (6-0)
6. Oklahoma (5-1)
7. Oregon (4-1)
8. South Carolina (5-1)
9. West Virginia (5-1)
   
10. Missouri (5-0)
11. Virginia Tech (5-1)
12. Kentucky (5-1)
13. Florida (4-2)
14. Wisconsin (5-1)
15. Southern California (4-1)
16. Hawaii (6-0)
17. Arizona State (6-0)
18. Cincinnati (6-0)
19. Illinois (5-1)
20. Auburn (4-2)
    
21. Florida State (4-1)
22. Kansas (5-0)
23. Colorado (4-2)
24. Connecticut (5-0)
25. Texas A&M (5-1)

And for the picks...

Straight up: 11-7 (117-30/79.6% overall)
Against the spread: 6-12 (49-69-5 overall)

Beat the farm!

Returning home after a very sloppy performance against Washington, the Trojans look to clean up their mistakes as the Stanford Cardinal arrive in Los Angeles for their weekender. The Cardinal, as will hopefully teams around the Pac-10, will have their thoughts and prayers with Stanford QB T.C. Ostrander, who suffered a seizure on Sunday and will not play. In place of Ostrander will be redshirt sophomore Tavita Prichard, who has thrown only three passes in his career. Stanford comes into the game 1-3 on the season, but 0-3 in conference play after 3 home games, and things do not get easier for them with road games against USC and Cal still on their plate. In their first road game of the year, I honestly don't think Stanford has a chance of even crossing midfield against the Trojan defense. But if we commit 16 penalties, give up 3 turnovers, miss a field goal and have a punt blocked, anything can happen. The last time USC has lost a home game was to Stanford in 2001, but this matchup looks as lopsided as last years. Poor Stanford getting the Trojans a week after a dismal performance two years in a row; last year we played them after losing to Oregon State 33-31, now they have us in a game where we have something to prove. The result? USC (-40) 38, Stanford 0 (I said nothing about covering the spread...)

As for the rest of the games this week, including two huge matchups in SEC play:

Thursday, October 4th
#11 South Carolina (-3.5) 31, #8 Kentucky 28

Saturday, October 6th
#1 Louisiana State (-8.5) 35, #9 Florida 24
#2 Southern California (-40) 38, Stanford 0
#4 Ohio State (-7) 31, #23 Purdue 18
Illinois (+3) 28, #5 Wisconsin 24
#6 South Florida (-16.5) 35, Florida Atlantic 10
#7 Boston College (-20.5) 31, Bowling Green 14
#10 Oklahoma (-11.5) 42, #19 Texas 17
#12 Georgia (+1) 33, Tennessee 28
#13 West Virginia (-26.5) 56, Syracuse 17
#22 Clemson (-6) 24, #15 Virginia Tech 21
#16 Hawaii (-39) 63, Utah State 21
#17 Missouri (-7) 49, #25 Nebraska 38
#18 Arizona State (-8) 42, Washington State 25
#21 Rutgers (-3.5) 35, #20 Cincinnati 20
#24 Kansas State (-3) 42, Kansas 28
Arizona (+4) 21, Oregon State 16
UCLA (-20.5) 31, Notre Dame 24

Recap from a wild weekend

Highlights from this game...


Yeah, a lot of shuffling in my top 25. Well, I guess I have to talk about the USC-UW game sometime, right?

Well, I guess I should lead off with the positives. The defense played lights out on Saturday, allowing only 190 yards (90 passing) and forcing a turnover. You could say that they only allowed 165 yards, as the two touchdown drives they gave up were on short fields. The first was after the mishandled exchange between QB John David Booty and C Matt Spanos, who stepped in to replace an injured C Kris O'Dowd, which gave the ball to the Huskies on the 15 yard line. Two plays later, UW QB Jake Locker dashed 10 yards into the endzone to give the Huskies a 7-0 lead. The second time the defense had to play on a short field was after P Greg Woidneck's punt was blocked and returned to the USC 10 yard line. Three plays later, Locker ran 1 yard into the endzone for the game's final score. But in between, the Huskies could not do anything on offense, with Locker misfiring on a lot of passes and the run game being stuffed by the dominant Trojan defensive line.

The other positive from the night was to see our run game still clicking after O'Dowd and G Chilo Rachal went down to injuries. RBs Chauncey Washington and Stafon Johnson both finished with over 100 yards and a TD each, and both had big runs which led to scores. The only thing I can complain about with the run is that Johnson needs to get more carries, as right now Washington has about a 2-1 ratio on carries, and rotating them on every play may even help if one is struggling. It was also nice to see Desmond Reed more involved in the offense on third downs as a pass blocking back who catches some passes out of the backfield. But whenever he's in the game, it screams to the defense that we are going to pass, almost like when WR Brad Walker is in, we run the ball almost 90% of the time.

Now for the bad. I can't really say that Booty played a bad game. But it seemed he was missing receivers all game, including several passes that if thrown on target, would have led to touchdowns. In his defense, the field did seem a little slick, especially on the play where Booty was almost intercepted in the end zone, the receiver (I think David Ausberry) slipped on the timing route. And FB Stanley Havili probably played the worst game of his life, with several drops, including the one which led to the interception returned for a touchdown. Havili wasn't the only one with drops in the game, but hopefully this problem gets resolved in the next three games before we play Oregon. The one thing you can say that is Booty is getting a lot of time to throw, which is credit to the offensive line. And that he threw for the longest touchdown pass of the season (23 yards to Patrick Turner).

The penalties almost killed the team. At least for the offense anyway. Any rhythm that the offense had going were killed by penalties, especially the false starts on G Alatini Malu, who had to replace Rachal after the injury. The personal fouls on the defense didn't hurt them, as they still held their own and gave up only a field goal on Washington's sustained drives, but that was due to two questionable pass interference calls. But whenever you have almost more penalty yards (166) that yards you allow (190), that's a problem.

Special teams was also a disapointment. K David Buehler missed a 33 yarder on our first drive, which kept UW in the game. Though I felt like that was a "Big Balls Pete" moment, with fourth and short after a long third down play by Desmond Reed and a field goal only giving us a 6 point lead. But that was still a very makeable kick. And the blocked punt at the end... it was a protection breakdown, and we were very lucky they didn't return it for a touchdown which would have made the upset bid more realistic. But the good, we had good kick coverage all game long. And CB Terrell Thomas had a hell of a game on special teams. First forcing the fumble on the punt return which set up our second field goal. And on the onside kick, he recovered, sealing the win for USC. Not to mention he played good defense.

Sigh. Anyway, time for the game balls:

Offense - Stafon Johnson, though he only had 9 touches, still kept the offense going while Booty struggled. I would say Chauncey could get it, but Stafon really lit a torch in the offense when he was in the game.

Defense - Keith Rivers played his assignment on Locker down to a tee, collecting 10 tackles in the process and continuing to build his draft stock. Other nominees were Rey Maualuga, who helped Rivers contain Locker, and Sedrick Ellis, who continues to give opposing O-lines fits.

Special Teams - Terrell Thomas played one hell of a game, forcing and recovering a fumble on a punt return and recovering the onside kick to end the game.

A rundown of other games from the weekend:

• LSU played sluggish in the first half against Tulane, holding only a 10-9 lead, but really showed up in the second half to pull away, 34-9. Their ability to put teams away is why I have them #1.
• Oklahoma, who had been blowing teams away by a margin of 50 points, let Colorado close the game with a 20-0 run to lose 27-24 in one of the more shockers of the day. Most of the time a team like the Sooners goes up by 17 points, they put a team like the Buffaloes away. But not on a day filled with upsets.
• Florida lost to Auburn for the second straight year, this time on a last second field goal to fall 20-17. I guess Tommy Tuberville has Urban Myers' number, but at least the Gators rallied from a 17-3 hole to tie the game before falling late.
• West Virginia failed to get any offense going in losing to South Florida, 21-13 in Tampa.The Mountaineers lost QB Pat White in the first half and never recovered. It looks like the Big East is now South Florida's the lose.
• Cal held off a late rally by Oregon 31-24, after Ducks' receiver Cameron Colvin fumbled the ball out of the end zone before crossing the goal line with less than 10 seconds remaining. It was a great effort by both teams, and I didn't penalize Oregon for losing to my #3 team in the nation, as Cal went into a hostile Auzten Stadium to pull out the win. I'm still terrified by both teams, especially since USC has to play both on the road.
• Texas got blown out at home by Kansas State 41-21. I thought the Longhorns would enter this game focused after their national title hopes were ended in Manhattan, KS, but I guess Mack Brown couldn't get his troops up for the game. I wasn't surprised by the result, though, as Texas has struggled in all of its games this year.
• Rutgers also lost at home, this time to a Maryland team that was coming off a stunning loss to Wake Forest. I wasn't able to watch the game, but I guess Ray Rice and the Scarlet Knights were never able to get the ball rolling. With the three favorites (Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers) each having one loss in conference play, the Bulls from South Florida look poised to capture the BCS berth (bowl game predictions later...)

I tried to break down my top 25 into four tiers, the national championship contenders (upper level undefeated teams), the one loss teams with the talent to win (and waiting for any of the undefeateds to fall), the lower level undefeated teams, and the lower level one loss teams. At this point in the season, no 2 loss teams will sniff my top 25 until much later in the year.

And for how I did this week (upsets hurt...)

Straight up: 15-9 (106-23/82.2% overall)
Against the spread: 10-12-1 (43-57-5 overall)