Sunday, October 29, 2006

Well it finally happened....

We got caught. Oregon State blitzed us early in the third quarter and we did not have enough time to catch up. Texas fell behind to Texas Tech by 21 in the first quarter, but they had three quarters to come back to win 35-31. The Trojans fell behind 33-10 in the middle of the third, and the Trojan Nation was in stunned silence. It was worse when we did not get any points on the board from the 10 yard line with four minutes left. But at the time it seemed like the right move to go for a touchdown, but at the end, a Mario Danelo field goal would have given us the win. It seemed like an unusual move, Pete Carroll usually doesn't chase points, and any points at that point of the game was better than nothing. But it was really encouraging to see the team tighten up to rally for 21 straight points to close the game to 2 points, but at the end, we could not finish the deal. I think it was good for us to finally lose. We do not have the pressure of trying to remain undefeated for the rest of the year, and I think it will really loosen the team up. I think its the same thing with the Cal game three years ago, after that, the offense scored 40 or more points for 8 straight games and the team made the Rose Bowl and won the AP national championship, which also carried over for the next two seasons. I really hope the coaches will loosen their grip on the team and just let them have some fun. Stanford seems like a great place to start, but could also be a mini trap game with Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA to finish up the season, but I hope USC wins that game 49-0. I can't say that I'm pissed about the loss, I'm glad that we didn't get blown out and were able to come within a two point conversion of overtime, and John David Booty really grew up in the second half. His only interception was a killer, but it wasn't the worst pass he's thrown, and Steve Smith will be making money on Sundays next year, with his 10 reception, 257 (!) yard game to go along with 2 touchdowns was really clutch. I guess something in the Northwest sets him off. After having a solid game two weeks ago, Chauncey Washington really disappointed with his two fumbles, but did atone for it a little bit by converting on our first two pointer. And the defense really wasn't that bad after the first touchdown drive by the Beavers. The defense gave up only one more touchdown (the other was on a punt return) and held Oregon State to six field goal tries. Too bad they also have the Lou Groza winner Alexis Serna on their team, who drilled a 53 yarder which was also a difference in the game. But its over now, the 38 game regular season win streak, the 27 game Pac-10 win streak, and so much more. But I'm not upset. I'm proud of the team. For a rebuilding team, they showed a lot of guts to regroup and rally together, and it took 4 turnovers on the road to defeat us, and with all that, we still lost by only two points. I know there's no such thing as moral victories, and I don't think this was one of them, but the second half shows a lot of promise for the team in the remainder of the year. We still have a shot at the Rose Bowl, though we'd have to beat Oregon, Cal, and UCLA to do it, as Notre Dame is not a conference opponent, so if it fell out that way, we'd finish 10-2 with a 8-1 record in conference (tied for first with Cal), but we'd hold the tiebreaker over Cal with a head to head victory. Not bad at all for a rebuilding year. Even in defeat, I'll give out the game balls:

Offense: Steve Smith may have had the big explosion, but I really admired QB John David Booty's poise and leadership to rally for the three late touchdowns. And for passing for 406 yards. His one interception was on a bad pass, but Dwayne Jarrett still had a shot to catch it, or at least prevent it from being intercepted.

Defense: LB Dallas Sartz hasn't played the best football this year, but he came up huge today, making 8 tackles, including 3 for loss, and 3 sacks which forced the Beavers to punt or go for long field goals in the second half which kept the game in striking distance for the Trojans.

Special Teams: Nothing really stood out again, especially with the bad punt coverage on the return, but for now I'll give it to DE Lawrence Jackson, who came up with his second blocked field goal of the year in the first quarter, which kept the game tied.

As for the season picks, I had USC (-10.5) 28, Oregon State 20. So much for that...

Season-to-date:
W-L - 6-1
Against the spread: 4-2-1

And my current Top 25:

  1. Ohio State (9-0)
  2. Michigan (9-0)
  3. West Virginia (7-0)
  4. Texas (8-1)
  5. Louisville (7-0)
  6. Auburn (8-1)
  7. Florida (7-1)
  8. Tennessee (7-1)
  9. Notre Dame (7-1)
  10. California (7-1)
  11. Southern California (6-1)
  12. Arkansas (7-1)
  13. Boise State (8-0)
  14. Rutgers (7-0)
  15. Wisconsin (8-1)
  16. Louisiana State (6-2)
  17. Boston College (7-1)
  18. Oklahoma (6-2)
  19. Texas A&M (8-1)
  20. Clemson (7-2)
  21. Georgia Tech (6-2)
  22. Wake Forest (7-1)
  23. Oregon (6-2)
  24. Tulsa (7-1)
  25. Hawaii (6-2)

Friday, October 20, 2006

Yeah, it's a little late...

But there's no game this week anyway. Which is good, as I have a whole lot of homework to do this weekend... Last week's game was another disappointment, not because it was close, but because we led 21-0 at one point and let Arizona State tie the game in the third quarter. Nice final stand by the defense to force a Sun Devil punt (doh!) where USC, behind Chauncey Washington, ran out the clock. Hopefully the Trojans can use this bye week to figure something out to prevent close games like this. But as I've said before, I can't really complain, as long as we win, but if we continue to play like this against Oregon, Cal, or Notre Dame, there will be some complaining going on.

Season so far:
W-L - 6-0
Against the spread: 3-2-1

Here's my updated Top 25, not including West Virginia's win tonight:

  1. Ohio State (7-0)
  2. Michigan (7-0)
  3. West Virginia (6-0)
  4. Southern California (6-0)
  5. Texas (6-1)
  6. Louisville (6-0)
  7. Florida (6-1)
  8. Tennessee (5-1)
  9. California (6-1)
  10. Notre Dame (5-1)
  11. Aubutn (6-1)
  12. Clemson (6-1)
  13. Georgia Tech (5-1)
  14. Nebraska (6-1)
  15. Boise State (6-0)
  16. Louisiana State (5-2)
  17. Oregon (5-1)
  18. Arkansas (5-1)
  19. Rutgers (6-0)
  20. Wisconsin (6-1)
  21. Texas A&M (6-1)
  22. Oklahoma (4-2)
  23. Missouri (6-1)
  24. Pittsburgh (6-1)
  25. Wake Forest (6-1)
I realize that I had LSU a little low last week, but after teams like Iowa, Georgia, and Va Tech racked up their second loss with LSU winning, I had to move the Tigers back up. Oklahoma remains low after losing Adrian Peterson for the rest of the season. Teams 22-25 I don't really care about any more...

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Acutally getting a prediction in...

So yeah, time for another heart attack this weekend... Though the last time the Trojans played in back to back single digit victories, USC played Arizona State the next weekend and led 42-7 at halftime. But I don't see that happening this week. If Sun Devil Coac h Dirk Koetter has even seen the highlights of USC/WSU and USC/UW, he would know to have QB Rudy Carpenter to utilize a three to five step drop with quick routes to beat the Trojans. Arizona State also has a couple of running backs, led by RB Keegan Herring, who rack up gaudy numbers in the yards per rush category. If in the right scheme, Carpenter has a lot of weapons through the air, led by arguably the best tight end in the nation in Zach Miller. The difference between the Washington schools and Arizona State is that coming into their game with USC, the Huskies and Cougars were on a roll, with Washington having won three straight, and four out of five, including wins over Fresno State and Arizona, and Washington State winning four straight after dropping their road opener at Auburn. The Sun Devils come in on a two game losing streak which saw them being taken to the barn by the class of the Pac-10, being blown out at California and at home against Oregon. Arizona State started off the season on a three game winning streak, but those wins weren't that impressive, needing two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away from Northern Arizona, blowing out a mediocre Nevada team, and just getting by Colorado.

Meanwhile, the Trojans come in having won five straight, but may be looking ahead to the bye week that awaits them after this contest. With nagging injuries to WR Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, and Chris McFoy, they could use the extra week's rest before travel to Corvalis and Palo Alto. QB John David Booty has done the best he is capable of, but if he continues to lock into receivers, USC may be in for a long game. The running game has not established itself either, with Chauncey Washington and Emmanuel Moody doing their best rotating in and out and wearing down the opposing defensive line with short runs. With Jarrett, Smith, and McFoy hampered with injuries, Patrick Turner stepped up his game last week, catching 12 balls for well over 116 yards and a TD. TE Fred Davis needs to be more aggressive out there, he should try to run defenders over instead of trying to hurdle them. The speed of the defense has been neutralized in the last two games with the opposing offenses using it to their advantage. Quick three step drops allow the offense to move the ball with safe routes and prevent the Trojans from creating turnovers. Carpenter will be the most established QB compared to Cougar QB Alex Brink and Husky QB Isaiah Stanback, though he is a more traditional pocket passer that may have to rely more on five to seven step drops.

There's one song the Trojan Marching Band to play on Saturday. It's not "Fight On." It's not "Conquest." It's "All Right Now." USC has only forced one turnover in the last two games, with the one being an interception on the game's final play against Washington State. If this trend continues, the Trojans might be playing in Aloha Stadium instead of the Rose Bowl come bowl season. But for this game, ASU is 0-11 under Koetter in California. Don't look for that to change this week.

USC (-19) 23, Arizona State 7

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Top 25 After Week 6

  1. Ohio State (6-0)
  2. Michigan (6-0)
  3. Florida (6-0)
  4. Southern California (5-0)
  5. West Virginia (5-0)
  6. Texas (5-1)
  7. Louisville (5-0)
  8. Tennessee (5-1)
  9. California (5-1)
  10. Notre Dame (5-1)
  11. Clemson (5-1)
  12. Georgia Tech (5-1)
  13. Auburn (5-1)
  14. Iowa (5-1)
  15. Boise State (6-0)
  16. Nebraska (5-1)
  17. Georgia (5-1)
  18. Virginia Tech (4-1)
  19. Missouri (6-0)
  20. Oregon (5-1)
  21. Rutgers (5-0)
  22. Arkansas (4-1)
  23. Oklahoma (3-2)
  24. Louisiana State (4-2)
  25. Wisconsin (5-1)
    Dropped out: Florida State (#18), Washington (#25)

#3 USC 26, Washington 20

Well, I guess I can't really complain until we lose, but two weeks in a row of games like this is hard to stomach. It's like we're the St. Louis Rams out there on offense, good moving the ball until we get into the red zone where we stall and have to settle for a field goal. I know this offense is nothing like last year's one, but when we get inside the opponent's five yard line, we have to score a touchdown. We're too good not to. Granted, we needed all the points we could get, with the defense playing awesome on first and second down before leaving receivers open on third and long, but that's for the second paragraph. Coach "Big Balls Pete" Carroll made a gamble which paid off, kicking a field goal from the four with about a minute and a half remaining for the final score, but at the time, it looked like a field goal would do not good. But the bend and almost break defense allowed the Huskies to get into field goal range with about 11 seconds left, plenty of time for Washington QB Isaiah Stanback to spike the ball so their kicker could have tied the game, but with Mario Danelo's fourth field goal under his belt, the Huskies and Coach Ty Willingham were forced to go for the endzone. This led to a curious call, a pass over the middle with under ten seconds remaining and no timeouts. The play was finally called dead with 2 seconds remaining (thank goodness for the incompetent Pac-10 officials), and Stanback was not able to get off a final play. Speaking of the refs, there were a couple of phantom holding calls, and the blown presonal foul on the last drive almost killed us, as it allowed Washington to creep closer into "Hail Mary" range. As for the offense, they were good moving the ball into the endzone. QB John David Booty did a nice job spreading the ball out, though he locked into the #1 route many times in the game, which led to easy breakups by the Huskie's secondary which could have been easily picked off if they knew, like the 90,000+ in the Coliseum knew, who Booty was throwing to. While many fans may be frustrated with Booty's performance, if you compare his stats with former QB Matt Leinart's in 2003, Booty has been more effiecient, and the key stat that Booty is leading in, he's 5-0 right now while Leinart was only 4-1. The running game was solid, with Chauncey Washington picking up a handful of key first downs on the Trojans' final possession which allowed us to eat up some clock and get into field goal range. Emmanuel Moody also took advantage of some holes in the Washington defense, but he was also stopped cold several times. The receivers corp was depleted again. With WR Chris McFoy already out with an injured shoulder, and Dwayne Jarrett slowed with a bum shoulder on his own, Booty had to look to WR Steve Smith, who starred in last week's game against Washington State. But Smith went down with an injury of his own, though minor, which kept him out for most of the game. So, after a disappointing performance against the Cougars last week when he coughed up the ball and dropped a couple of passes, WR Patrick Turner stepped up as the go-to receiver for Booty, catching more than half of Booty's 23 completions for 116 yards and a touchdown, USC's only offensive TD of the game.

While the Trojan offense may have had problems putting the ball into the endzone, the defense had problems keeping the Huskies off the scoreboard. As I said before, it seemed like the defense was fired up and pretty much limited Washington to 0-3 yards combined on first and second down, but when we got them to where we wanted, in third and long situations, it seemed like DC Nick Holt sent a blitz while the secondary dropped back into a zone, which left the middle of the field open, allowing the Huskie receivers to run past the marker and settle down in the middle of the field. Granted, some of it may hve been the offensive scheme drawn up by Washington, using the plan Washington State used last week, but again, we failed to get pressure on Stanback and did not force any turnovers. This has been a big reason why we are not able to pull away from games. When the defense forces turnovers, two things happen. One is the momentum swings heavily in our favor. And two, it gives our offense great field position that allows for quick and easy scoring drives. When we hit those big three games; Oregon, California, and Notre Dame, if we can't gain extra possessions by creating turnovers, I'm afraid our offense won't be able to keep up with them.

Special teams did a better job than in past games this season. It wasn't Danelo's fault that the offense sputtered in the red zone, but he was Mr. Reliable, scoring 14 points today when we needed any kind of points with our defense unable to stop the Huskies. Troy Van Blarcom was solid as usual on kickoffs, and P Greg Woidneck also was steady in the field position battle. I stil don't understand why opposing punt returners need to try to be heroes on punts, it seems often more than not that if they don't call for a fair catch, they're going to get blasted by one of our gunners. C.J. Gable looks to have found his niche returning kicks, while Desmond Reed has probably fielded two punts all year. The special teams play of, er, forever, though was the fake field goal for our first touchdowb. I'm surprised Carroll used it in this game, though I'm probably more surprised he did it so early in the game. It seemed more appropriate to do after he sent Danelo out for his 15th field goal attempt, but it still was a special play. Third string QB and holder Michael McDonald threw his second career touchdown pass (on his second career throw) to a wide open Smith for a touchdown. A play like that usually demoralized teams in the past, but now, teams are starting to hang with us instead of fading away. A fake field goal for a touchdown usually led to a bevy of touchdowns after that, but instead it was the Mario Danelo show out there. Oh well. Time for the game balls:

Offense - Though WR Patrick Turner may be tempting with his 12 catches for 116 yards and a TD, it was all about RB Chauncey Washington and his solid running, going for 81 yards on 17 carries and pitching in with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Without his third and short conversions, we would have given Washington (the team) the ball back with more than ample time to try and score a touchdown. Turner may have the stats, but Washington (our RB) came up with the big plays when we needed them the most.

Defense - Ugh, not again. I guess I should hand one out, though with the defense not forcing any turnovers or the the secondary picking off any passes, it's really hard to pick out someone from a group that's really struggling. This unit was supposed to be our team's fallback, with an inexperienced offense, out defense should keep opposing teams to under 14 points per game. So our struggling offense has had to find ways to put up more points that the defense allows, which has been more than enough against the Washington schools. But if I really need to give one out, I guess LB Keith Rivers would get it, based on his 12 tackles, including one for loss, and two pass breakups. So basically, the guy with the best stats wins here, though it's not really saying much. Its like winning the NL West.

Special Teams - C.J. Gable really helped with the field position, and Mario Danelo may have scored 14 points today (4-4 FG, 2-2 PAT), but I'd have to give this game ball to QB Michael McDonald, who threw a touchdown to Steve Smith on a fake field goal, only because I'm still giddy about that play. And maybe because McDonald has probably the highest QB rating ever. (2-2, 24 yards, 2 TD).

Overall, another disappointing game for the Trojans. I'm not expecting to win every game against an unranked opponent by 50 points, but I expect to not have a heart attack in the final minute of every game as we conveinently lead by 6 points... Arizona State is next. You think QB Rudy Carpenter has been watching what Stanback and WSU QB Alex Brink had been doing the past couple of weeks? The Sun Devils had a bye to lick their wounds from their beatings from Cal and Oregon, so they may be prepared for the upset in the Coliseum. The only problem, ASU Coach Dirk Koetter is winless in California. Go figure...

No pick'em this week, though I did pick Washington to cover the spread (I'll show you my Yahoo! College Football Pick'em if you don't believe me), with of course USC (-19) winning, so I guess:

W-L - 5-0
Against the spread: 2-2-1

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

My Top 25...

  1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan
  3. Auburn
  4. Southern California
  5. Florida
  6. West Virginia
  7. Texas
  8. Oregon
  9. Louisiana State
  10. Louisville
  11. Notre Dame
  12. Oklahoma
  13. Tennessee
  14. California
  15. Georgia
  16. Clemson
  17. Georgia Tech
  18. Florida State
  19. Iowa
  20. Virginia Tech
  21. Boise State
  22. Rutgers
  23. Nebraska
  24. Missouri
  25. Washington

#3 USC 28, Washington State 22

Hmm, that was a close call... With injuries to their star receiver and top three fullbacks, the USC Trojans find a way to survive against the Washington State Cougars, 28-22. The USC defense had problems pressuring WSU QB Alex Brink, which gave him a lot of time to find his second and third receivers. Give credit to Cougars Coach Bill Doba, he came in with the right plan and a great attitude, not like two years ago when he gave up after an onside kickoff to start the game went awry. He also took very few risks in the game, which translated to Brink's play on the field. Wazzu committed no turnovers before Brink's final heave-ho was picked off by S Taylor Mays, and credit that to the offensive game plan, which used safe passes and misdirection plays that took advantage of the overpursuit of the quick Trojan linebackers. Doba also didn't chase points, he kicked field goals to help the Cougars keep momentum, as everytime USC scored, Wazzu responded with a score of their own, whether it be a field goal or a touchdown. They also didn't fold like most USC opponents have done in the past, as after the Trojans went up 13 points with 6 minutes left, Brink led the Cougars on a quick 2 minute touchdown drive to cut the score to the final margin. And with the game coming down to the final play, there were several key drives/plays that really helped USC escape with the win:

Midway through the third quarter, Wazzu punted the ball to USC and it was downed on the one yard line, though it appeared the Cougar's foot was on the goal line which should have resulted in a touchback. But the play was upheld, and QB John David Booty led a 9 play, 99 yard drive that took 5:14. The extra time spent on the drive took away from the time Brink had on Wazzu's final drive.

I was mostly disappointed in WR Patrick Turner's play throughout the game, coughing up the ball in the first quarter as we had the momentum after Chris McFoy's TD reception from Booty. Turner also ran short routes on third and long. But he did come up big, getting a first down on our final drive, allowing us to kill a couple of minutes while keeping the Cougar offense on the sidelines.

Putner Greg Woidneck saved a high snap and still managed to kick the ball 37 yards to the Cougars 23 yard line with 1:04 to go. Had he not saved the snap or not gotten the kick off, oh boy, I think the Pullman/TBS curse would have been in play.

I didn't mention WR Steve Smith, as he was clutch the entire game. Without him, those three plays wouldn't even have mattered. He was the lone highlight of the game for us. The running game struggled behind our offensive line, which failed to create many holes, though RB Emmanuel Moody busted out on a 48 yard run on our 99 yard drive, but that was probably due more to his elusiveness than the O-line. Fred Davis caught a few passes in the flat, but for some reason, decided to hurdle the Cougar DBs instead of running over them, resulting in short gains instead of first downs. Can't really complain about Booty's play, though, for the most part he threw the ball where it needed to go, right into the hands of Smith, who finished with 11 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. The USC defense failed to get pressure on Brink the entire game, and everytime he threw it deep, it seemed like one of the players in the secondary seemed to get pass interference. Also, our special teams stinks. At least we could catch the ball last year, we had two fumbles in this game and were lucky to recover both. FB Mike Brittingham recovered a ball RB/S Allen Bradford fumbled and appeared to be recovered by Wazzu. And RB Desmond Reed muffed a punt that was called dead before anyone recovered it. We're USC, can't we find better people to handle these duties? That was Reed's second fumble on a punt return, and it's not like he's had any big returns yet. All he's done so far is call for a fair catch, and he's already screwed that up twice. And what is Bradford doing on kick returns? CB Cary Harris may have had trouble sniffing out the 2o yard line, but at least he cleanly caught the ball on every kickoff. Geez, can't Coach Pete Carroll recruit a player that can focus all of his attention on returning kicks? Oh well, now for the game balls:

Offense - WR Steve Smith. No question, though Booty gets some consideration for being smart enough to throw it to him on both fourth down conversions. Smith finished with 11 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dwayne Jarrett who? Though it was disappointing to lose Chris McFoy to injury.

Defense - I'm really inclined to not hand a game ball out to the defense. No one really stepped up. Even Rey Maualuga seemed out of place in the game. Yeah, sorry defense, but when you give up 418 yards to Washington State, that's not cutting it.

Special Teams - Again the return game is struggling, and K Mario Danelo is relegated to PAT duty, and K Troy Van Blarcom's booming kickoffs were nullified by our pourous defense, so the game ball goes to P Greg Woidneck, who had four punts for an average of 44.7 yards, including the last one that pushed the Cougars back to their 23 yard line instead of letting a high snap float over his head.

Well, can't complain too much, a win is a win. Next game is against the rejuvenated Washington Huskies, who are 4-1 with wins against Fresno State and UCLA. If Isaiah Stanbeck figures out how to mimic Vince Young, we might be in trouble. The defense needs to be dominant again, and our offense needs to get on track and stay healthy. And with a 12:30 game, will the diehard USC student be out there after a late night of drinking?

Season pick'em: Yeah, I chose USC (-17) 24, Washington State 6...

W-L - 4-0
Against the spread: 1-2-1 (ouch...)